Betting Tips for ‘Thursday Night Football’: Packers at Lions

Week 14 of the NFL season kicks off with an exciting divisional clash between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions at Ford Field. With playoff implications on the line, this showdown promises to deliver high stakes and plenty of action.

#Packers Fans.. Look for a Healthy dose of Josh Jacob’s tonight. This will definitely open up some deep balls to Watson. Along with Jacob’s, hopefully Reed with 12-15 touches as well. #PackersLions@PeteDougherty pic.twitter.com/MnNkldYzsN

— Eric Baranczyk (@EricBaranczyk1) December 5, 2024

Game Overview

• Kickoff: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
• Broadcast: Prime Video
• Odds (via ESPN BET):
  • Spread: Lions -3.5
  • Moneyline: Lions -185, Packers +155
  • Over/Under: 51.5

Team Trends:

• Detroit Lions (11-1, 9-3 ATS):
  • Riding a 10-game winning streak.
  • Playoff berth secured with a win.
  • Super Bowl favorites at +250.
• Green Bay Packers (9-3, 6-6 ATS):
  • On a 3-game winning streak.
  • Can surpass their season win total of 9.5 with a victory.

Luis Mahiquez’s Picks and Insights

1. Game Prediction:

The Lions’ dominance this season makes them a formidable force, especially at home. However, the Packers are showing resilience and have a knack for stepping up in high-stakes games.

• Pick Against the Spread: Packers +3.5
• Reasoning: The Lions have been stellar, but the Packers’ balanced attack and strong recent form make them a great value at +3.5.

2. Total Points (Over/Under):

• Pick: Over 51.5
• Reasoning: Both offenses are firing on all cylinders, with Detroit averaging 29.8 points per game and Green Bay finding its groove under Jordan Love.

Prop Bets to Watch

Passing Props:

• Jared Goff Passing Yards: Over 249.5 (-105)
  • Reasoning: Goff has averaged over 260 yards in his last five games and will likely exploit Green Bay’s secondary.
• Jordan Love Passing TDs: Over 1.5 (-140)
  • Reasoning: Love has thrown 2+ touchdowns in three consecutive games and faces a Lions defense ranked 17th against the pass.

Rushing Props:

• David Montgomery Rushing Yards: Over 59.5 (-110)
  • Reasoning: Montgomery’s physical running style complements the Lions’ offensive scheme, especially in high-pressure games.

Receiving Props:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards: Over 69.5 (-115)
  • Reasoning: St. Brown is Goff’s go-to target, consistently surpassing this mark against average secondaries.
• Christian Watson Receiving Yards: Over 39.5 (-135)
  • Reasoning: Watson has emerged as a deep-threat option for Love, and his speed could exploit Detroit’s corners.

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Key Analytics

Team Offense:

• Lions:
  • 4th in total yards per game (398.7).
  • Averaging 29.8 points per game.
• Packers:
  • Improved to 8th in passing yards per game (246.5).
  • Averaging 27.3 points during their win streak.

Defense:

• Lions:
  • Allowing 21.5 points per game (12th overall).
• Packers:
  • Struggling against the run, ranked 20th in rushing defense.

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Luis Mahiquez’s Final Take

This game will come down to execution in the trenches. While the Lions are heavy favorites, the Packers’ momentum and ability to play spoiler make this a closer matchup than expected.

• Final Score Prediction: Lions 31, Packers 28
• Top Value Bet: Packers +3.5